← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sat, Jun 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 43% | 27% | 2.10 | fair |
| Cordoba win | 30% | 50% | 3.00 | value: +51% ⚠ |
| Almeria win | 27% | 23% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cordoba | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 339.00 | 186.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1494.79 | 1468.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.66 | 2.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 64.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.15 |
| state index | 0.49 | -0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |