← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sat, Jun 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ath Bilbao B win | 38% | 29% | 2.58 | fair |
| Tenerife win | 36% | 37% | 2.72 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 33% | 3.70 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ath Bilbao B | Tenerife |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 216.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1347.67 | 1478.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.88 | -10.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| league points | 29.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.34 |
| state index | -1.48 | -0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |