← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sun, May 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina win | 37% | 23% | 2.66 | fair |
| Tenerife win | 35% | 47% | 2.81 | value: +32% |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.42 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tenerife | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 210.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1482.69 | 1407.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.88 | 14.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 54.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.15 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |