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Mallorca 0–1 Cordoba

← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sun, May 29, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Mallorca win38%39%2.50fair
Draw36%29%2.70fair
Cordoba win26%32%3.69value: +16%

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMallorcaCordoba
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days149.00333.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
elo1431.881484.58
elo momentum (last 5)6.8131.49
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.43
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
league points46.0061.00
league rank18.006.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days5.004.00
season ppg1.151.52
state index-0.110.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40