← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sun, May 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 77% | 58% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 27% | 6.24 | value: +69% |
| Llagostera win | 8% | 15% | 12.94 | value: +90% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Llagostera |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1093.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1546.94 | 1436.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.95 | 13.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 68.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.02 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |