← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sun, May 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 73% | 44% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 29% | 5.66 | value: +62% |
| Mirandes win | 10% | 27% | 9.78 | value: +165% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Mirandes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 180.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1460.64 | 1443.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.50 | -39.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 44.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| state index | -0.39 | -1.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |