← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sun, May 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 72% | 46% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 29% | 5.08 | value: +47% |
| Numancia win | 9% | 25% | 11.07 | value: +174% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Numancia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 333.00 | 363.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1528.31 | 1496.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.76 | 13.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| league points | 71.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.35 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |