← Segunda División 2015-16 · Thu, May 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 66% | 41% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 32% | 4.35 | value: +39% |
| Ath Bilbao B win | 12% | 27% | 8.34 | value: +126% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ath Bilbao B | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 330.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1363.50 | 1521.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.37 | 26.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| league points | 29.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.74 |
| state index | -1.28 | 0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |