← Segunda División 2015-16 · Tue, May 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 37% | 30% | 2.65 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 33% | 38% | 2.99 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 328.00 | 888.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1469.58 | 1575.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.51 | 10.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 49.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.51 |
| state index | -0.46 | 0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |