← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sun, May 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugo win | 55% | 57% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.83 | fair |
| Ath Bilbao B win | 20% | 16% | 4.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | Ath Bilbao B |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1450.37 | 1372.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.31 | -17.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 51.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 0.76 |
| state index | -0.51 | -1.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |