← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sun, May 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 57% | 51% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.65 | value: +5% |
| Ponferradina win | 16% | 20% | 6.09 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 326.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1512.65 | 1408.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.84 | -8.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 65.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.13 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |