← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sat, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 53% | 60% | 1.85 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 19% | 14% | 5.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 885.00 | 141.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1570.32 | 1425.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.26 | -7.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| league points | 56.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.13 |
| state index | 0.45 | -0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |