← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sun, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina win | 43% | 44% | 2.26 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.24 | fair |
| Lugo win | 27% | 26% | 3.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ponferradina | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1398.39 | 1460.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.54 | -11.48 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| league points | 40.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.38 |
| state index | -0.84 | -0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |