← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sun, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche CF win | 35% | 33% | 2.81 | fair |
| Girona win | 35% | 31% | 2.82 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 35% | 3.19 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Elche CF | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 319.00 | 879.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1531.48 | 1569.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.11 | 10.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 55.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.49 | 1.49 |
| state index | 0.14 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |