← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sun, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 49% | 33% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.37 | value: +13% |
| Ath Bilbao B win | 22% | 34% | 4.39 | value: +49% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ath Bilbao B | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 380.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1371.51 | 1478.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.73 | 18.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 28.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.54 |
| state index | -1.15 | -0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |