← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sat, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 56% | 63% | 1.75 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.88 | fair |
| Albacete win | 19% | 15% | 5.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Albacete |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 318.00 | 1170.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1476.58 | 1371.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.00 | 14.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 46.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 0.97 |
| state index | -1.11 | -0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |