← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sun, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza win | 59% | 61% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.05 | fair |
| Ath Bilbao B win | 17% | 14% | 5.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Zaragoza | Ath Bilbao B |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 159.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1523.88 | 1378.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.50 | -8.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 56.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 0.78 |
| state index | 0.46 | -0.82 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |