← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sat, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenerife win | 52% | 40% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 35% | 3.52 | value: +22% |
| Elche CF win | 21% | 25% | 4.72 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tenerife | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 188.00 | 311.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1489.40 | 1530.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.10 | 12.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 50.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.50 |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |