← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sat, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 54% | 41% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.46 | value: +9% |
| Ponferradina win | 18% | 27% | 5.39 | value: +46% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 372.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1482.44 | 1394.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.10 | -20.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 56.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.08 |
| state index | 0.25 | -1.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |