← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sat, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oviedo win | 36% | 36% | 2.68 | fair |
| Llagostera win | 35% | 34% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Llagostera | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1922.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1410.83 | 1473.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.97 | -6.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| league points | 33.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.56 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |