← Segunda División 2015-16 · Mon, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 44% | 48% | 2.23 | value: +7% |
| Ath Bilbao B win | 29% | 21% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.53 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ath Bilbao B | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1066.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1385.69 | 1547.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.59 | -17.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.55 |
| league points | 28.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.71 |
| state index | -0.39 | 0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |