← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sun, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina win | 36% | 40% | 2.69 | value: +9% |
| Zaragoza win | 33% | 30% | 2.96 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ponferradina | Zaragoza |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1392.27 | 1525.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.82 | 3.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 38.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.57 |
| state index | -0.95 | 0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |