← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sun, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 55% | 53% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.69 | value: +7% |
| Tenerife win | 19% | 18% | 5.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Tenerife |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 865.00 | 182.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1575.69 | 1495.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.83 | 17.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 52.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.49 | 1.43 |
| state index | 0.80 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |