← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huesca win | 56% | 44% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 31% | 3.89 | value: +20% |
| Llagostera win | 19% | 25% | 5.19 | value: +31% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huesca | Llagostera |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 151.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1423.04 | 1423.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.27 | 23.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| league points | 39.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 0.94 |
| state index | -0.41 | -0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |