← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 42% | 33% | 2.33 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 28% | 36% | 3.53 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 359.00 | 298.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1460.98 | 1496.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.02 | -38.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 50.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.32 |
| state index | -0.56 | -0.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |