← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugo win | 44% | 48% | 2.24 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.27 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 27% | 23% | 3.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 114.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1462.42 | 1432.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.10 | 17.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 47.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.15 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |