← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 66% | 58% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 27% | 4.34 | value: +16% |
| Ponferradina win | 12% | 15% | 8.19 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1057.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1539.44 | 1400.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.36 | -17.48 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| league points | 57.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.12 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.89 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |