← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 50% | 43% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.36 | value: +12% |
| Elche CF win | 21% | 24% | 4.71 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 297.00 | 297.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1494.06 | 1536.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.06 | 17.52 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 57.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.53 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |