← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche CF win | 47% | 45% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.32 | value: +8% |
| Lugo win | 23% | 22% | 4.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Elche CF | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 290.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1526.18 | 1472.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.80 | 12.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 49.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.42 |
| state index | 0.20 | -0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |