← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ath Bilbao B win | 42% | 30% | 2.35 | fair |
| Mirandes win | 30% | 39% | 3.30 | value: +29% |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.38 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ath Bilbao B | Mirandes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1390.34 | 1503.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.15 | 2.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| league points | 27.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 19.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.42 |
| state index | -0.66 | -0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |