← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza win | 48% | 56% | 2.04 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.41 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 24% | 18% | 4.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Zaragoza | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 131.00 | 100.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1495.51 | 1440.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.17 | 22.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| league points | 46.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.19 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |