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Cordoba 2–3 Albacete

← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Cordoba win50%59%1.94value: +14%
Draw28%23%3.46fair
Albacete win22%18%4.49fair

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaAlbacete
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days284.001136.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
elo1450.601357.91
elo momentum (last 5)-6.95-11.39
form points (last 5)5.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.341.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
league points48.0029.00
league rank6.0021.00
matches since blank5.000.00
matches since clean sheet11.0012.00
matches since win4.002.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.500.91
state index-0.70-0.99
venue ppg (last 5)0.000.00