← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 47% | 45% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.47 | value: +6% |
| Valladolid win | 25% | 24% | 3.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1043.00 | 283.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1540.32 | 1522.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.24 | -9.88 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| league points | 54.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.41 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |