← Segunda División 2015-16 · Mon, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oviedo win | 38% | 45% | 2.52 | value: +13% |
| Ath Bilbao B win | 31% | 25% | 3.08 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ath Bilbao B | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1889.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1387.33 | 1479.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.04 | -6.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 24.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.96 | 8.96 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.58 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |