← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sun, Jun 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza win | 57% | 22% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 3.93 | value: +17% |
| Leganes win | 18% | 48% | 5.32 | value: +154% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Zaragoza |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 736.00 | 218.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1476.24 | 1501.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.59 | 3.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 55.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.46 |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |