← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sun, May 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza win | 40% | 43% | 2.45 | value: +6% |
| Las Palmas win | 32% | 31% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Zaragoza | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 211.00 | 331.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1517.68 | 1550.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.82 | 17.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 60.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.80 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |