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Llagostera 0–1 Mirandes

← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sun, May 31, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Llagostera win45%49%2.17value: +7%
Draw28%34%3.44value: +18%
Mirandes win27%16%3.61fair

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLlagosteraMirandes
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
elo1503.051449.33
elo momentum (last 5)-7.9510.02
form points (last 5)5.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.151.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
league points54.0053.00
league rank8.0010.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
rest days7.008.00
season ppg1.351.32
state index-0.31-0.17
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00