← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sun, May 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 56% | 63% | 1.75 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.95 | fair |
| Zaragoza win | 20% | 14% | 4.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Zaragoza |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 357.00 | 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1574.32 | 1497.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.42 | 8.64 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| league points | 69.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.46 |
| state index | 0.64 | -0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |