← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sun, May 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 62% | 46% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 33% | 4.15 | value: +36% |
| Llagostera win | 14% | 21% | 6.78 | value: +41% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Llagostera |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 522.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1588.54 | 1509.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.22 | -1.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| league points | 75.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 1.38 |
| state index | 1.10 | 0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |