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Albacete 4–2 Mallorca

← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sun, May 24, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Albacete win61%47%1.60fair
Draw25%26%3.88fair
Mallorca win14%27%7.12value: +90%

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlbaceteMallorca
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days814.00296.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
elo1413.851448.04
elo momentum (last 5)-4.4420.30
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
league points47.0048.00
league rank15.0014.00
matches since blank6.003.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days3.004.00
season ppg1.211.23
state index-0.37-0.13
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00