← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sat, May 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina win | 55% | 51% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.72 | fair |
| Lugo win | 18% | 21% | 5.29 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ponferradina | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1460.48 | 1437.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.49 | -15.74 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 53.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.21 |
| state index | -0.87 | -1.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |