← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sat, May 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 40% | 58% | 2.43 | value: +40% ⚠ |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.22 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 30% | 14% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 721.00 | 22.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1462.21 | 1414.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.93 | 11.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 51.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.03 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |