← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sat, May 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 71% | 59% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 21% | 5.78 | value: +24% |
| Barcelona B win | 12% | 19% | 8.29 | value: +59% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Barcelona B |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 323.00 | 1452.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1546.13 | 1394.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.67 | -5.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| league points | 69.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 0.92 |
| state index | 0.52 | -0.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |