← Segunda División 2014-15 · Thu, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Llagostera win | 39% | 52% | 2.51 | value: +30% |
| Albacete win | 31% | 18% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Llagostera | Albacete |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 811.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1524.11 | 1398.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.18 | -7.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 54.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.16 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.64 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |