← Segunda División 2014-15 · Wed, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 42% | 35% | 2.32 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 35% | 3.31 | value: +15% |
| Recreativo win | 29% | 31% | 3.42 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Recreativo | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 718.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1344.60 | 1474.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.86 | -12.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| league points | 32.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.34 |
| state index | -1.82 | -0.45 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |