← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sun, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina win | 52% | 44% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.53 | value: +13% |
| Llagostera win | 20% | 24% | 4.91 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ponferradina | Llagostera |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1480.41 | 1513.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.23 | -0.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 53.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.38 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |