← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sat, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 57% | 74% | 1.70 | value: +26% ⚠ |
| Draw | 25% | 18% | 3.95 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 18% | 7% | 5.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 349.00 | 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1568.88 | 1417.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.83 | 9.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| league points | 65.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.05 |
| state index | 0.65 | -0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |