← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sat, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 69% | 57% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 26% | 4.83 | value: +24% |
| Recreativo win | 11% | 17% | 9.13 | value: +58% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Recreativo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 316.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1530.62 | 1351.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.42 | -51.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| league points | 63.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 0.86 |
| state index | 0.16 | -1.56 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |