← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sun, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 51% | 36% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.38 | value: +16% |
| Mirandes win | 21% | 30% | 4.76 | value: +43% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Mirandes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 9.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1403.55 | 1445.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.00 | 12.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 36.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.31 |
| state index | -0.69 | -0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |