← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sun, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Llagostera win | 40% | 43% | 2.41 | value: +4% |
| Numancia win | 30% | 25% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.35 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Llagostera | Numancia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 708.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1515.64 | 1493.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.72 | -9.48 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 50.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.36 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |